On December 8th, at the World Intelligent Manufacturing Conference, Kevin Kelly not only came, but also brought his latest predictions on the future development trend of the world. He said that the so-called prediction is to judge a long-term trend. Trend 1: Artificial Intelligence Kevin Kelly emphasized that artificial intelligence is inevitable. Artificial intelligence is being used on issues such as disease resolution, lawyer issues, etc. Its goal is to replace manpower. It is even possible that one day, the plane we are flying will be unmanned. And with the popularity of artificial intelligence, what will robots bring? He believes that all work that emphasizes productivity and efficiency will be replaced by robots. Robots will bring new jobs to humans, rather than stealing human jobs. Those that are less demanding on efficiency are more suitable for humans. For humans, what is more important is the work of innovation. Because innovation itself is the driving force for human progress. He said that the final value of people depends on their cooperation with artificial intelligence, which will be the future direction. Some of our companies have to do intelligent production. First, they have to become a smart company. They need to solve the problem of not being a machine, not a process, but solving the problem of interaction between people and machines, so that they can become real smart companies. The premise of intelligent production is the decentralization and intelligence of the enterprise. All of these intelligent elements are attributed to the company itself. He also said that "smart" as a service is a new resource that can be our infrastructure and can be purchased like a commodity. Now intelligence can become a "cloud" and anyone can buy artificial intelligence. People can buy AI as much as possible, and then apply AI to a certain field to make the product more intelligent. Everyone can have AI and then use AI for smart manufacturing. Trend 2: Virtual Reality Kevin Kelly believes that virtual reality is also one of the important trends, which will become the most social media of all social media. Because it can achieve experience sharing between people. Virtual reality will be the most important social way in the future! He said that the glasses of virtual reality were actually developed in 1989, but we have only just begun to use it. This kind of virtual reality glasses technology, we call it the embedded virtual reality of the phenomenon level. But even more difficult is hybrid virtual reality. For example, if we put on glasses, we can walk into a world similar to the real world. Microsoft is now experimenting with hybrid virtual reality, walking into a room, going to the bookshelf and opening a book, which is more like real. Trend 3: Sharing Kevin Kelly pointed out that anything that can be shared will be shared. Our way of sharing and collaborating will be unprecedented. Technology makes everything possible. He said that sharing can add value. The sharing here is about cooperation and cooperation. You can share work tasks, share clothes, and this is sharing. Transnational and interstate, our way of sharing and cooperation will be unprecedented. Thousands of people don't know each other, but it does not hinder the cooperation between them, the tools, the technology that connects people, and the sharing of connections. The technology will be the key. Sharing the rise of the economy will create more value. For example, Uber is a car, but they don't own a car; Alibaba is a platform, but he has no inventory; Facebook is the world's largest social platform, but he does not create content... So, instantly The things you can get are far more important than the possession of this thing. This is to go to product. For example, people buy cars in the future, but in fact they are buying the right to use the car. Trend 4: Tracking Kevin Kelly talked about Suning's tracking system, which can track customer preferences. In virtual reality, we can track anyone. Virtual reality companies must be the largest companies in the future, because they have the largest amount of data, and they are tracking massive amounts of data. Trend 5: On-demand economy The economy on demand is one of the trends in the future world. Kevin Kelly explained this with Uber, Facebook as an example. Trend 6: Screen reading Kevin Kelly believes that in the future world, when we look at the screen, we are not only looking at the screen, it must be interactive with the user. There will be a technology in the future that can track the information you are queried through the screen and capture your emotions. Trend 7: Flow The product is cured, but the production and service are fluid. No matter which industry you work in, it is an industry that flows data. Finally, Kevin Kelly said that the end is also a new beginning, and the future is unbelievable. The greatest products of the next two decades are not yet available. We are still at the beginning of the beginning. There are still many things that surprise us in the future. Therefore, it is not too late to join at this time. >>> Extended reading: Kevin Kelly predicts the next 25 years: artificial intelligence will be as low as water, electricity and coal, VR will become the next social platform On December 9th, at the event “Meet the Future, Talk to Kevin Kelly Summit†hosted by the cover news, “The Father of the World Internetâ€, “Technology Business Prophetâ€, and the founding editor of Wired magazine Kevin Kelly airborne in Chengdu and opened a feast of thoughts about the future. In an hour of speech, Kevin Kelly will share his predictions about future technology in detail and will carefully interpret the application of artificial intelligence, virtual reality and other technologies. I would like to thank the organizers for providing shorthand materials. The following is a shorthand speech, which is partially modified without changing the original intention: Kevin Kelly: I am very happy to be here today, thank you for coming. I am very honored to be in Chengdu today. This is a very good city and a very good city in China. We said that we are constantly developing into the future, so today we are teaching with you and learning something new with you. This is why I am constantly returning to Chengdu. I want to share with you some of my views about where we will go in the next 25 years. The most important technology for the next 25 years is intelligent It is very difficult to predict the future, but we have our advantage, because technology is biased, in such a way, or it is in a very realistic, very physical way we can understand how we predict future. Therefore, through such a technology, its characteristics, its physical characteristics can produce a lot of products, substances, so it can also help us understand the future, understand technology, where technology will go. So in terms of long-term trends, the long-term trend of technology is predictable, but some specific details are unpredictable. For example, like a mobile phone, our smart phone, we don't know if there are Apple mobile phones, Alibaba, Baidu, what products they will have in the future, we can't predict. We can't talk about such detailed predictions because they are unpredictable, but their form is predictable, including inventions. You can see that there are four corners, for example, you have a chair and there are four Horns, all these items, they all have four corners, and such four corners, they are all physical shapes, they all have specific shapes, so some of them The object can be predicted, but what kind of substance it is, which product, and its specific situation are unpredictable, so we talk about its specific material is unpredictable. You can imagine that our rainwater flows down the valley. It has a special river channel that forms such a river. You don't know how much the specific river channel is, but you can predict its direction, so this is We say that we can predict the direction of technological development. Let's take a look at its technology, how it is used, how to use it in an efficient way, in a legal way, or whether it is used in our children, or other aspects, which can tell us the direction of technology. For example, like a phone, we must have an invention, but we can't predict Apple's smartphone. If you are another planet, they may change, so we can predict that there will be a phone, but we can't predict it. Apple's smartphone. For example, the network, we can predict the network, but I don't know if there is Twitter. We know that there is such a trend, but I don't know which companies are doing specific products, such as a river that flows in this direction, but it may There are different levels of flow, but in the end it will flow in a unified direction, which is a historical trend. So we talked about the very important point. The most important technology in the next 25 years is to make our things more intelligent, that is, let us know, such as artificial intelligence, such as robots, these are some basic things, it It won't happen within five years. It will happen within 25 years. It won't happen even next year or after, but we will predict that we will learn about our business, our culture, and us. The technology, our profession, its overall direction is consistent with this, we can learn from it one direction, we understand that all things are moving towards a more intelligent direction, we have artificial intelligence, now With artificial intelligence, but after artificial intelligence, you will see a lot of things behind, in the background, they use artificial intelligence to diagnose. For example, doctors use artificial intelligence to diagnose, he is better than our manual method. So, this is a big plane, our pilot only flew for 8 minutes, and other time used artificial intelligence to fly. In our car, we also have brakes, and its intelligent brake level is also better than manual brakes. The level is good, so these technologies, they are constantly developing, constantly forming, they have new software, or some new processing units, they are unimaginable five years ago, we will find our image processing unit It is also constantly developing, and it is getting more and more perfect. The third point of artificial intelligence is that we need big data. We need a lot of data to achieve artificial intelligence, so these three things have been achieved in the past five years, so we now have artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence can defeat the world's greatest Go master, because these latest Found that with the latest technology, we now have artificial intelligence to defeat humanity. Similarly, we can also teach these artificial intelligence to let them know what we are constantly doing. Here are five pictures, such as you search on Google, you will find a lot of pictures, you will find to find a Hawaii vacation or other Pictures of any place, these are artificial intelligences that themselves can help us find, just look at him, you can identify it, remember it, this is its current technology, this is our latest technology, now can What we did for us. Similarly, we can talk to artificial intelligence and teach them how to play games. If you play games, you have played games with artificial intelligence in the past ten years, because another video game player is artificial intelligence, so in In the past ten years, you have actually talked to artificial intelligence. Now he not only teaches you to play games, he not only appears in the game, how to play games, he will tell you how to get more points, so now there is artificial learning, this is a very far-reaching progress, so such a kind Artificial intelligence and artificial learning, artificial intelligence is very important to us, we must know how artificial intelligence makes people smarter, artificial intelligence is smarter than our humans, your company is smarter than you, your navigation Is it smarter than you? Our Baidu search engine, is it smarter than you, especially in terms of memory, because it has a large storage capacity, which is larger than ours, so artificial intelligence is smarter than humans, in its various There is a great development in depth and scale. Because we have different thinking, he is different from human beings. Why do we have artificial intelligence, such as letting artificial intelligence drive? It is like driving a car, no, because it is very intelligent. Human beings are not too good drivers. In the past year, human drivers have killed another 1 million humans, so humans are not good drivers. We are not good, but artificial intelligence drives better than us. Fewer people have lost their lives in car accidents. Because they are controlled by engineering, they are not distracted and will not be affected by other things, because they are different from people's thinking, so they are misunderstood. This is a kind of single latitude, but in fact it is not entirely true. Artificial intelligence does not work like this. It is not a single latitude. It is actually more complicated. He should be a spectral phenomenon, and propose different elements in it. There are different elements, just like the notes of music, you can see that it is a different type in the computer, its special rhythm, and emotional elements are inside, so our IQ is not just what we think Some intelligence, it has a lot of latitude aspects. Animals also have this kind of intelligence. In some ways, their intelligence is higher than us. For example, squirrels, his long-term memory is better than human long-term memory. If there are a thousand dice sprinkled in different places, the squirrel can find it. But humans can't find it, so this is something that animals have some brain functions that are better than humans in different ways. But in some respects it is really not as good as us. We think again in the world of machines, similar to the example I just gave. In the world of machines, they have some advantages. Intelligence is more advanced and more powerful than humans, but Some are not as powerful as humans, so the intelligence of this machine is an area of ​​engineering research. It is also a basic principle. Engineeringly, it is impossible to achieve development in every aspect. Some levels are maximized, so it is a natural balance for resources, strong in some respects, and weak on the other. So we have a lot of types of intelligence and intelligence. You can see this picture. For example, our earth is in the middle, but our human brain is not in the same center as the earth. In fact, we are on the edge. We are actually marginal in terms of intelligence. Different from these, there are many kinds of thinking, and human thinking is not dominant. For example, in the next 25 and 30 years, there are still many ways of thinking that will shock us, and intelligence will appear in front of us. And will we use it in different ways. Now we can see that our business will have some problems, and there will be some challenges in science. Human intelligence can't solve these problems. We will face even greater challenges, in science or business, so we have to build another Thinking and intelligent, solve this problem together. So there are two steps. The first is to create another kind of intelligence to solve this problem. The second is to solve this problem together with this intelligence as a dependent and coexisting relationship. Artificial intelligence "stolen" work also creates new jobs Our intelligence is not the center of the universe. We are only a very special kind of intelligence. It is after many years of development to solve the current problems, but for the future problems we must create some new artificial intelligence, different kinds of artificial intelligence, Every one is different from the others, but one is special, but it is far from the way humans think, or artificial intelligence is not human-like. He is smarter than us, and he will be smarter. It is not like a human brain, and the advantages and benefits he brings to us are that it has a different way of thinking. Therefore, the driving force for our wealth and social development is the difference in the way of thinking. In the next century, the difference in thinking style will bring about a big difference. We now have 6 billion people in the world, and everyone’s way of thinking is Different, but artificial intelligence is different from the whole human way of thinking. It is to help us to produce some different ways of thinking, because it is smarter than us, but not smarter than us in every respect. But it will give us a lot of revelation, so this difference is a benefit, this is what I want to say to people about artificial intelligence. In the second industrial revolution, everyone may be very familiar with the first industrial revolution, and human culture has undergone tremendous changes. The current changes that everyone sees are the first industrial revolution. And the peasant revolution has also made a very big change to human beings. In the agricultural society, everyone knows that we can solve many problems with manpower, or the energy processing of animals to change these, such as arable land and land. Related to the human labor force. A major change occurred 100 years ago, and it has changed our way of life, that is, the power of labor, not physical strength, but the artificial power of human beings. It is steam, it is electricity, for example, some of the energy we get from burning oil, so this artificial energy is not the same as natural energy. For example, if you switch gears at high speed, you can get a bigger forward energy, 250 yards, not only the energy brought by your own physical strength, but the energy of the machine operation, so you can be at high speed. Traveling on the road, speeding up, you can also speed up your car in a lot of ways. This is what we call artificial energy. The artificial energy we use now is a distributed use. Every family, every factory, every farm can share this power. Everyone can buy this power and energy, and it is cheaper. We don’t need to create it ourselves. We can buy it. For everyone, it is daily necessities, daily energy, so it is not strange to everyone, which frees up a lot of creativity. For example, a farmer, he can use a water pump to take water, so if he thinks about it, then I can buy some electricity and make an electric pump, so its manpower can be liberated by this electric pump, increasing by 100 times or One million times, he can continue to increase this ability, which is the change brought about by the industrial revolution. For example, every item in this room, every thing in the city, the things and things we face every day are realized through artificial energy, so our lifestyle has been changed, they can Use anytime, anywhere, and the price is very cheap. In the next 25 years, we will think of this artificial force, it will be replaced by artificial intelligence, everything will be very smart, now you use the electric pump, you can use artificial intelligence to upgrade later, we will You can use a smart pump, multiply by 1 million times, and inject artificial intelligence into it. He can help us more. For example, the car, it now has 250 horsepower. If we add artificial intelligence, we will join. 250 brains, from artificial power to artificial intelligence. And not by horsepower to measure the power of this car, we use its intelligence to measure whether it is intelligent, such as multiplying 1 million times, 1 million cars, each car has 250 brains, and AI if it is widely used, then its The price will also decrease. We say cloud, everyone has heard of the cloud, the cloud is a network, can pass artificial intelligence to everyone, he is a facility, it is a service, you do not need to create artificial intelligence, you only need to buy You can, how much you want to buy, when you can buy it, you can use it as long as you buy it, everyone can buy it, so everyone goes to the society of ability, to the society of electricity, to the intelligent society now, every Each item can be powered on, and after it is powered up, it can also classify its different cognitions, which is what we are doing now. So my suggestion is that you can use an equation to understand it. The next 10,000 startup innovation companies, such as Plus+, and then add artificial intelligence, are such equations. You can now use computers, mobile phones, You can buy artificial intelligence for your computer and mobile phone. For example, Google products can be bought. After you run out, you can still sell it. You can buy a product for six cents, so what are you waiting for? It’s very exciting to buy artificial intelligence in a cheap way. It can work for you around the clock, and it’s intelligent. It’s 24 hours a day for you, and it’s no problem for 7 days of continuous work. This is the service that is now available to everyone. If we add AI to our robot, you can see that there is a robot on the map. If there is no programming, coding, you can add your own code and what you want him to do, and manipulate it by coding. Action, this is the robot that we will see in the ordinary days, and he can work with you. For example, he can do some integration in the factory. Of course, robots can help people accomplish different tasks. Many tasks can now be done by robots, they can learn, and they can become very intelligent. But these robots actually create more work for humans. It is not just a substitute for some positions, he can add some positions because it can be controlled by us and controlled by humans. Of course, for some people, this is more difficult to understand. For example, 150 years ago, 70% of Americans were farmers, and now 1% of their grandchildren are farmers. If you return to 150 years, you tell them that you may Will be unemployed, what they say, technology has stolen your work, but in fact it is very interesting because of science and technology, so some new jobs have been created. Your grandson may not be a farmer. He may be going to real estate. Working, going to a network company, can do different jobs, not just as a farmer. These are the conveniences that technology brings to us, so this is also a better future that artificial intelligence will bring us. Nowadays, many people are using technology to create new positions, and I want to emphasize that many robots can replace the work of manpower, which are all work that is very efficient and effective, such as a job, if You want to evaluate it with productivity or efficiency, and you can put this work on the robot. But if there are some tasks, the way to measure its efficiency is to look at its efficiency. Robots and artificial intelligence will of course replace humans. So everyone wants to innovate the word. What is it? We will become an innovative person. Now, companies that are entrepreneurial and innovative are also booming. So what is the final innovation? It's a wrong process. It works in the same way that science works. If you have a science studio, you have to experiment. If your experiment is successful from the beginning, you can't learn anything. This means that all our knowledge is a learning process, a feeling of trial and error, and constant experimentation. This is science, and science is an innovative process. Innovation is not a very efficient process at all, because it has a lot of mistakes, you have to spend time, so efficiency is not the only measure of measurement, these jobs can not be handed over to robots, robots can not replace humans The role, so talk about efficiency, robots to do, innovation and entrepreneurship to do. Everyone remembers when there was a computer and human chess player. At that time, the human contestants thought that this was an unfair game because his computing power was stronger. The contestants said that if I have such a database, I can also Win, so he thinks this is an unfair game. So in the new chess league, humans can fight against the database. If it can get the artificial intelligence database, you can play this game at any time. You can play with the chess master. You can play with the AI. You You can also play with humans and compete with the database. This is a half-human and half-horse robot. It is a collaboration of artificial intelligence. Everyone thinks that the best chess player in this world is not an artificial intelligence game. Hand, he is not a human being, he is a mixture of machines and humans, he is the most powerful player. Many doctors will say that the diagnosis of artificial intelligence is better. The general medical ability is not like it, but the best diagnostician is not human, nor robot, and the combination of artificial intelligence and human height, so we talk about the war. At the same time, the highest efficiency of this warrior's regiment is when the machine and the people work together. So everyone believes, our future salary level, the standard of measurement will be the case of our cooperation with artificial intelligence, depending on whether we can cooperate well with them, and the salary may be higher. So in the future our colleague may be a mixture of robots and humans. Baidu, Apple, they all have great potential, because they are using artificial intelligence now, but I can't predict who will develop a little longer, but it is not to be ignored that they are using AI. Interaction, we want our devices to interact with us, I don't know they are as indifferent as machines, we hope they respond. We and the computer actually interact with each other for a long time. For example, I don’t know if you watched this movie. I joined this team. You can imagine that in the future, you can use your arm and computer to interact, just use your Fingers, you can capture this screen, you can use your body language to tell the computer to interact, this movie is the starring of Tom Cruise, its data can be turned into music, everyone thinks of Iron Man's actor, he can use different The database, and it has a role of dancing and symbiosis with the data, we can interact with the computer with very small movements. We now have a nano chip that can read our emotions, so in the end, this interaction is what we enter into the computer system. This is VR, virtual reality, that is, you walk into a virtual environment, in fact, Equivalent to your computer around you, you can see that VR glasses were invented in 1989, when considering the social interactivity, the picture on the right is he is trying to use virtual reality to develop it. However, its effect is very good. In 1989, I predicted that VR will be available in five years, but it was wrong. It did not appear at that time. At that time, the technology was very powerful. If it was calculated in US dollars, it might cost 100. Ten thousand dollars made this VR market, it is really too expensive, so VR did not appear within 25 years of 1989, but the smartphone appeared, and many conditions made VR market, and it is constantly improving. In the next five years, you will see the first consumer product listed, and everyone can use VR glasses in a decade. The next platform after the smartphone, VR will show a very broad platform, and the VR ecosystem will be more and more developed. I will explain why this is the case. These two kinds of virtual reality, one is entry-oriented, it will give you an enter-type experience, and the second is very clear glasses to wear. You will find this room after you wear it. This person will be a mixed reality situation. You can move it and use your virtual hand to move it, but these substances are not really present in this room. So there are two kinds of virtual reality, The second is called hybrid virtual reality. It is a very large technology. With a very clear glasses, you have such a virtual reality experience after you wear it. But the second is more difficult, but there is more power, such a mixed reality, it is like you do things, such as you design a product, you can predict it in advance, you can move it, you can Do some animation, you can touch it, feel what it is, or experiment with it, you can research it, use our hands to interact and conduct research, through such a virtual reality of mixed reality, you can Better understand what you are designing, so this is a more powerful virtual reality. There were virtual screens at the time, you can see the virtual screen no matter which room you entered, there are some virtual animations, virtual movies, virtual books, for example, when you are watching a movie, or when reading, there will be A lot of screens have a lot of things you want. This is what we want to give to everyone in the future. You put on your glasses, all the equipment is here. This is a hybrid virtual reality. He wants to mix the real world. And the virtual world, this is a very great technology. For example, you have such a real experience, it is almost 3D, and there are many virtual characters in the real environment, material, you can really understand what happens under such circumstances, such as us What happens when we put some virtual matter in reality, this is what our hybrid virtual energy brings to us. So in the past, what about our sense of touch? It’s all felt through our hands, or through our ears, which is why our hands are so important, for example, you can pick things up, you have to use your whole body strength, really feel it, feel your Touch, you will really feel it. But with our virtual technology, you can also put your glasses on, in such a room, in the virtual world, you can still feel some things on the ground, such as one on your carpet Scarf, you can feel it. In your brain, you will wonder if you are in the same room, or your brain is very clear, you know that there is no such substance in this room, but your body will really feel its existence. Because virtual reality works in another part of your brain, for example, part of your brain is tube reading, and part of it manages our sense of touch, so through such a virtual reality, the nerves of your tactile part will be mobilized. . When you take off the virtual reality glasses, you will remember what you saw, what you feel, your experience, so this is an experience of the Internet, it is a kind of knowledge, information, documents, networks, websites. It can bring us the internet of experience classes. It will make our experience a new currency, you can download something to get a different experience, or you can share your experience with you, this is a new currency, such as who you are sitting with Together, but this is virtual, or you do an experiment, or you make a protest, or you go to a demonstration, it is virtual, but it is a physical examination, it happens in different places in your brain, it Can make you feel, as I said, our sense of touch will be greater than 50%. He can also have some remote experience, or the sea, or Mars. Through such a remote experience, you will see a virtual person sitting in a chair, I can walk around him and see the pores on his body. I know that he is not here, there is no one here, but at that time, I will feel that he is there, I am very close to him. So this is what virtual reality can make us feel. It is a very powerful force and experience. Virtual reality allows us to feel the real existence, let us experience, interact, including our virtual reality, our Internet of Things, it will give us 100% real experience, for example, here we continue through the device Capturing everyone's movements, we are in virtual reality, every part of our human body, every movement will be tracked, so your body's language, your words, your eyes and so on, all of which can make you Get the simulation experience, because it is the same as the real person experience, the real person's movements, body language, etc., so it can convince you that this is a real experience, that is, virtual reality will become a social social The reason for the media, because most of the social media now only allows us to communicate online, virtual reality allows you to have a real experience, the most powerful part of virtual reality is not to create a real world, he makes us impossible to exist us Things in life or people can really let us experience, so this 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Seven Trends in the Future of the World in the Eyes of Kevin Kelly, World Smart Manufacturing Conference